First-principles modeling of geomagnetically induced currents from the upstream solar wind to the surface of the Earth

Our capability to model near-space plasma physical phenomena has reached a level that enables first- principles (in contrast to empirical) modeling of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) based on information obtained from the upstream solar wind. As GIC pose a real threat to the normal operation of long conductor systems on the ground (like power transmission systems), it is clear that success in accurate modeling of GIC would open an entirely new window for operational space weather products. Namely, present statistical estimates and nowcasting capabilities would be supplemented with real forecasting ability. Space physics models hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) supplemented with models for geomagnetic induction process and GIC provide an ideal platform for the first attempts of first- principles modeling of GIC. Here we use global magnetospheric MHD models at CCMC to model the geomagnetically active period of Oct 24-29, 2003. The ionospheric output of the global MHD is coupled to geomagnetic induction and GIC models to obtain GIC in various geographical locations. Then, the actual measured and modeled GIC time series are compared to evaluate the performance of the model chain.