How typical are the last 20,000 years of climatic and vegetation change in the tropical Andes?

A consensus of global circulation models highlights the southern tropical Andes as the biodiversity hotspot most likely to experience biome shift in the next century. The pace of the ongoing change finds its nearest parallel in that of the Younger Dryas at high latitudes. However, in the tropical Andes of Peru and Bolivia we find that there was no such rapid temperature change within the last 40,000 years. Rates of temperature change across the deglacial interval (which may begin as early as c. 22,000 cal. yr BP) are one to two orders of magnitude slower than those forecasted for the next century, and differed little from those of the full glacial. Indeed, the fastest rates of vegetation change are responses to Holocene drought and human activity, not Pleistocene/Holocene warming. Sedimentary data from long records on the Altiplano provide records of earlier interglacials (MIS 5e, 7 and 9), but do not have the chronological control to provide assessments of rate of change. Nevertheless, those records do provide evidence of marked similarities in the development of each interglacial, with some divergence seen at full interglacial conditions.