Examining the earthquakes damages record: what does the last 100 years of losses mean for natural hazards policy?
Abstract
In order to compare earthquake losses on an "apples-to-apples" basis, the record of U.S. earthquakes since 1900 is normalized for societal change by correcting for inflation, wealth increase and population. This analysis shows that earthquakes cause roughly 2.5B in annual-average damages and have caused about 430B in total damages since 1900. The analysis shows no significant trend, upward or downward, in damage losses. Comparing these results to a similar analysis for hurricanes indicates that while at their most extreme earthquakes and hurricanes produce commensurate damage losses, on an annual-average basis hurricanes and other weather-related hazards cause roughly four times the damage of earthquakes. Examination of the normalized earthquake damage record generates a multitude of questions for decision- making on natural hazard mitigation, including whether spending on earthquake mitigation has caused a measurable decrease in damage outcomes. Other pertinent questions concern the lack of balance in mitigation spending between various high-impact hazards (weather-related hazards receive roughly ten times the federal funding of earthquake hazards), whether the transfer of information from the catastrophe modeling community to decision-makers accurately describes damage potentials, and whether feedbacks can be detected between disaster outcomes and hazard mitigation policy-making. Answers to these questions provide insight toward better utilization of earthquake science in mitigation policy-making.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2006
- Bibcode:
- 2006AGUFMPA31A0824V
- Keywords:
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- 0468 Natural hazards;
- 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- 6324 Legislation and regulations (6615);
- 6620 Science policy (0485);
- 7299 General or miscellaneous