Technology-Policy Driven Potential for Energy Decarbonization of the USA

Mounting evidence for climate change and geopolitical rivalry for oil show that the business-as-usual policies of energy development are unsustainable. The US is today on a path of increased energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions: 1.5% annual growth in energy use with 136 quads consumed in 2025 and 190 quads consumed in 2050 unless efforts are made to reduce demand growth and develop alternative energy. In stark contrast to these trends, the Kyoto protocol calls for 5% emissions cuts from 1990 levels by 2012. Moreover, there is scientific consensus that worldwide emissions reductions of at least 80% are needed by mid-century in order to avoid irreversible climate changes. To fully examine the opportunities for dramatic decarbonization of the energy economy, scenarios based on the learning curves of key energy technologies are needed to compare the relative costs and benefits of different future projections. Despite under-funding, the history of investment in energy innovation demonstrates that enormous gains can be achieved for both energy efficiency and production through research programs that have been linked to implemented policies. With continued and increased interactions between research and policy, we demonstrate dramatic but achievable scenarios for decarbonization in two of the largest sectors of the US economy: electricity generation and the light vehicle transportation. Through incremental development and deployment of innovations in end-use efficiency, renewable energies, nuclear power, vehicle design, bio-fuels, and engine technologies; reductions of more than 80% from today's levels can be achieved by 2050.