The effects of volcanic eruptions on simulated ocean heat content and thermal expansion

We examine the ocean heat content in a recent suite of coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations of the 20th Century. Our results suggest that 20th Century increases in ocean heat content and sea-level (via thermal expansion) were substantially reduced by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The volcanically-induced cooling of the ocean surface is subducted into deeper ocean layers, where it persists for decades. Temporary reductions in ocean heat content associated with the comparable eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) were much shorter lived because they occurred relative to a non-stationary background of large, anthropogenically-forced ocean warming. To understand the response of these simulations to volcanic loadings, we focus on multiple realizations of the 20th Century experiment with three models (NCAR CCSM3, GFDL 2.0, and GISS HYCOM). By comparing these runs to control simulations of each model, we track the three dimensional oceanic response to Krakatoa using S/N analysis. Inter-model differences in the oceanic thermal response to Krakatoa are large and arise from differences in external forcing, model physics, and experimental design. Our results suggest that inclusion of the effects of Krakatoa (and perhaps even earlier eruptions) is important for reliable simulation of 20th century ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. Systematic experimentation will be required to quantify the relative importance of these factors.