Modeling the Climate Response of the Laki Eruption - Benjamin Franklin was Right
Abstract
Benjamin Franklin was one of the first to recognize the connections between volcanic eruptions and climate. Shortly after the 1783-1784 Laki eruption, he postulated that the dry fog over much of Europe was likely caused by a volcanic eruption in Iceland, that the winds would have transported the gas and aerosol over much of the Northern Hemisphere, and that the cold winter of 1783-84 was caused by this dry fog. We used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE climate model to examine the chemical conversion and transport of SO2 gas from the Laki eruption (64.10°N, 17.15°W) and used the resulting aerosol concentrations to model the climate response. Using our calculated aerosol distribution, we conducted a 10-member ensemble simulation with ModelE coupled to a q-flux mixed-layer ocean. The mean of these runs reproduced the extensive radiative cooling (-1 to -3°C) that occurred during the summer of 1783 across much of Asia, Canada, and Alaska and produced a strong dynamical effect in summer as the Laki eruption forces a significant weakening of the African and India monsoon circulations. This is seen in cloud cover and precipitation anomalies and resulted in significant warming (1 to 2°C) from the Sahel of Africa to northern India. This is a very robust result and has been observed after the last 3 large high-latitude volcanic eruptions, Eldgjá (939), Katmai (1912), and Laki, all of which produced large reductions in the flow of the Nile River. In the winter of 1783-1784 our model reproduced the significant negative temperature anomalies over the Northeastern United States, and smaller cooling produced over Europe. That winter was one of the coldest on record over these areas and our model results confirm that Laki could have been partially responsible for these anomalies.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2006
- Bibcode:
- 2006AGUFMHG31A..04O
- Keywords:
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- 0305 Aerosols and particles (0345;
- 4801;
- 4906);
- 0370 Volcanic effects (8409);
- 1626 Global climate models (3337;
- 4928);
- 1704 Atmospheric sciences;
- 8409 Atmospheric effects (0370)