A Demographic Analysis of American Geophysical Union Membership with Implications for Change

Demographers use population pyramids to characterize the age/gender structure of societal groups. Diagrams of the population of age cohorts for both sexes assume the shape of a pyramid in rapidly expanding groups, having many more young people than older adults. Stable populations have similar numbers of people in age cohorts from infants through middle-age adults. Shrinking populations have fewer children and relatively larger numbers of adults. Demographic analysis of the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) membership reveals significant differences among the numerous specialties and the membership as a whole. The population structure diagram of the total AGU membership is highly asymmetrical with 77.5% male and 22.5% female. Males outnumber females in every age cohort. This is most noticeable among members born prior to 1945. Males belonging to these cohorts make up 16.5% of the total membership, while female members of equivalent age include 0.8% of the total. The largest membership cohort (29% of the total) is comprised of males born between 1950 and 1964, a group that includes both the "baby boom" generation and post-war petroleum exploration expansion. In contrast, the female cohort with birth years from 1970 to 1979 is the largest grouping of women members (8.4% of AGU's membership). Furthermore, women comprise 36% of the members born since 1965, and only 14.5% of those born before 1965. Considered separately, the female membership's age structure is characteristic of a growing population, while the male side is in relative decline. The population structure of the entire membership is mirrored in some specialties, but there are remarkable differences in others. The largest specialty group (hydrology) includes 16.9% of the total AGU membership and has a population structure that differs little from that of the whole organization. Four specialties, Atmospheric Chemistry, Biogeosciences, and Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, and Marine Geochemistry differ significantly from the aggregate membership. The population structures of these groups are pyramidal, indicating a strong potential for growth. Women also comprise more than 30% of each of these groups and outnumber men in some recent cohorts. Growth potential is unevenly distributed throughout AGU's membership with traditional specialties likely to experience significant decline as the older cohorts retire and die. Strongest growth is most likely to occur in recently recognized interdisciplinary specialties, especially those in which women already constitute a significant fraction of the membership.