Interactions and Feedbacks in the Changing Arctic Hydrologic System
Abstract
Change in the Arctic climate system is dramatic and widespread. The exchange of freshwater in all its forms plays a leading role in the system, as its influence reaches far beyond the boundaries of the region, has strong ties to ecology and humans, and constitutes important links between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial ecosystem. The manifestations of change in components of the hydrologic cycle are difficult to unravel, however, owing to the complex interactions among them as well as between the Arctic and lower latitudes. In this study we adopt a graphical approach to identify and understand the primary drivers of the system, particularly as they effect biological and human well- being, and explore how these interactions may change in a future Arctic with dramatically reduced permanent ice. Positive and negative feedbacks are identified by examining the connecting pathways of influence. Focusing only on those that affect the living components of the system (marine productivity, terrestrial plants, and humans), our preliminary analyses suggest: 1) The majority of feedbacks are positive, with the notable exception of those involving the exchange of freshwater in the unfrozen ocean, 2) All feedbacks in the terrestrial system that affect vegetation contain a weak link, 3) If the observed trajectory of change in the physical hydrologic system continues, feedbacks affecting living components will further augment terrestrial vegetation, marine productivity, and human well-being.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2006
- Bibcode:
- 2006AGUFM.U33A0012F
- Keywords:
-
- 1621 Cryospheric change (0776);
- 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218;
- 1843;
- 3322);
- 1632 Land cover change;
- 1637 Regional climate change;
- 1655 Water cycles (1836)