Landslide disaster avoidance: learning from Leyte

On 17 February 2006 a gigantic rockslide triggered a debris avalanche that overran the barangay Guinsaugon, St. Bernard in Southern Leyte Province, Philippines, burying 154 victims, with 990 missing including 246 school children. Even with satellite imagery, GIS-based landslide susceptibility modelling and real-time meteorological and seismic data analysis, scientific prediction of every potentially fatal landslide is not possible in most parts of the world. This is particular the case in steep, unstable, densely-populated country in which heavy rain is common. So how can further events of this type be prevented from turning into disasters? A number of precursory phenomena were noted by local inhabitants at Guinsaugon: a crack around the slope that failed was noticed in May 2005; coconut trees near the northern foot of the landslide scarp began to lean increasingly in the down-slope direction in December 2005; a slope around the northern edge of the 17 February 2006 landslide scarp failed on December 17, 2005; in the 9 days prior to the rockslide, 640 mm of rain fell; 450 mm in a 3-day period.

Such phenomena are commonly reported by local inhabitants before large landslides (e.g. Elm, Mayunmarca, and many others). In many cases, therefore, it is in principle possible for local people to avoid the consequences of the landslide if they know enough to act appropriately in response to the precursory phenomena. For this possibility to be realized, appropriate information must be provided to and assimilated by the local population. Useful ways of achieving this include pamphlets, video, TV and radio programs and visits from civil defence personnel. The information must be properly presented; scientific language will be ineffective. A communication pyramid, leading from government agencies to local leaders, can facilitate the rapid availability of the information to all potentially susceptible communities. If science can determine those areas not vulnerable to landslide disasters, that is potentially advantageous. However the next landslide may be next week, so the information initiative cannot wait for science: lives will not be saved while the pamphlets are in a box. Keywords: Leyte landslide; precursory phenomena; disaster avoidance; community awareness.