Broadband Waveform Modeling to Evaluate the USGS Seismic Velocity Model for the San Francisco Bay Area

As part of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake centenary, the USGS developed a three-dimensional seismic velocity and attenuation model for Northern California based on detailed geologic and geophysical constraints. The model was used to predict ground motions for the 1906 rupture. In this study we evaluate the model to assess its ability to accurately predict ground motions from moderate earthquakes recorded on broadband stations. Satisfactory prediction of ground motions from these events will provide hope for accurate modeling of future scenario earthquakes. Simulations were performed on large parallel computer(s) with a new elastic finite difference code developed at LLNL. We simulated broadband ground motions (0-0.25 Hz) for several moderate (magnitude 3.5-5.0) earthquakes in the region observed at Berkeley Digital Seismic Network (BDSN) broadband stations. These events are well located and can be modeled with simple point moment tensor sources (taken from the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory catalog), helping to isolate the effects of structure on the waveforms. These data sample the region's diverse tectonic structures, such as the bay muds, sedimentary basins and hard rock complexes. Preliminary results indicate that the simulations reproduce many important features in the data. For example, observed long duration surface waves are often predicted for complex paths (traveling across contrasting structures) and through sedimentary basins. Excellent waveform fits were frequently obtained for long-period comparisons (0.02-0.1) and good fits were often obtained for shorter periods. We will attempt higher frequency simulations to test the ability of the model to match the high frequency response. Finally, we performed large scenario earthquake simulations for the Hayward Fault. These simulations predict large amplifications across the Santa Clara and San Ramon/Livermore Valley sedimentary basins and with the Sacramento/San Joaquin River Delta.