Factors Controlling Tidal Flat Morphology in South San Francisco Bay

Since the 1850's, the San Francisco Bay has been subjected to a wide array of human-induced change. From the time of the first US Coast and Geodetic Survey bathymetric surveys in 1858, the saltmarshes and mudflats of South San Francisco Bay (SSFB) have decreased in area by 80% and 40%, respectively. Much of the saltmarsh loss was due to salt pond leveeing, while mudflat loss can be related to lack of sediment input, wind-wave erosion, and sea level rise. Plans for marsh restoration include breaching of salt pond levees with the goal of restoring the 15,100 acres of acquired ponds to tidal marsh the largest such restoration in the western US. The effect this would have upon the adjacent mudflats is unclear. In this analysis, the tidal flats of SSFB are broken into geographically similar regions and multiple cross-sections are drawn from mean high water to below mean lower low water at close intervals, allowing for a mean tidal flat bathymetric profile to be determined for each segment and for each time period 1858, 1898, 1931, 1956, 1983, 2005. Eigenfunction analysis is used to separate the spatial and temporal changes in profile shape into the dominant components of variability, allowing evaluation of the behavior of mudflats relative to spatially and temporally-varying forcings. The components of bathymetric variability derived from objective statistical analysis are compared to theoretical models for tidal flat profiles as a function of waves, tides and sediment supply. Theoretical models predict that wave-dominated or sediment-starved flats tend to have concave-upwards bathymetric profiles, whereas tide-dominated or accretionary flats tend to have convex-upwards bathymetric profiles. Initial results from an analysis of the 1980's bathymetry data suggest the South Bay mudflats can be broken into three morphologically distinct sections: 1) concave-up, erosional mudflats in the Eastern zone, which is most subject to wind waves; 2) convex-up, accretionary flats in the Southern zone, south of the Dumbarton Bridge, and 3) concave-up flats with mounding on the seaward edge on the western shore. Up to this point, more research has been focused on the response of saltmarsh to reclamation or restoration; very little attention has been paid to the accompanying change in mudflat shape and sediment character. These data allow for a look at morphologic changes of muddy shores on a multi-decadal timescale, and should prove useful to managers in determining which mudflats would respond most favorably to levee breaching and saltmarsh restoration.