Sun-Earth Propagation Time of CMEs Originated at different Helio Longitudes

We present a study of the transport of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary medium and the probability that they, or the associated shocks, reach the Earth surroundings when they are ejected in different Helio-longitudes. To reach this goal we choose the CME events associated with the active region 0486 which crosses the solar disk during October - November 2003 and produced several CMEs during its crossing from East to West limb. We measured and analyzed the speed profile of each event, we found that the speed profile of halos and partial-halo CMEs are very symmetric and an elliptical model seems to fit the profiles very well. Using a cone model we determine the space direction of CMEs and then, the most probable speed in the Sun-Earth direction. Using these speeds, we applied the CME travel time empirical model to determine the near Earth arrival times of both interplanetary CME and related shock. We found that the difference between the predicted and observed arrival times increase with the Helio-longitude of the CME. To help in the identification of CME - 1 AU shocks and to validate the empirical model, we use 2D numerical simulations of the events.