Understanding the Impacts of Changes in Freshwater on Human Communities and Cultures Using Multi Agent Systems Modeling

The Arctic system is a dynamic and functional mosaic where critical hotspots provide foci for coupled social-ecological processes. Large and growing collections of biophysical data and advances in agent-based models (ABMs) are rapidly enabling researchers and practitioners to acquire greater understanding of potential impacts at finer scales. Critical to the development and application of ABMs is the information provided regarding the agents themselves (i.e., humans). We know very little about how human perception drives resource-use patterns and thus can not accurately construct multi-agent systems despite the advances in ABMs. In other words, models are not magic, they rely on informed programming: garbage in=garbage out without a thorough understanding of sociocultural drivers that govern human actions toward a specific resource attractor, in this case, freshwater. Without this understanding, our ability to articulate and comprehend how societal adaptation to change is governed is limited to assumptions and broader scale, equation-based modeling. Here, we provide a innovative and unique methodology which allows the use of ABMs to develop meaningful predictors of future impacts to human communities under conditions of altered hydrological regimes. Finally, we present data which demonstrate that agent types, networks and their social construction of the biophysical space may ultimately determine their ability to cope with change.