ElarmS Earthquake Alarm System: Application in Northern California

We study the potential for earthquake early warning in Northern California using the Earthquake Alarm System, ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, Science 2003). The ElarmS code is modified to interface with data from the Northern California Seismic Network and the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network, and a set of Northern California calibration events is used to test the accuracy of the ElarmS early warning determinations in Northern California. We present an assessment of the warning time and accuracy of the magnitude and ground motion predictions of the ElarmS method in Northern California. This study lays the groundwork for incorporation of ElarmS into the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory's real-time reporting system, and possible future deployment as a hazard mitigation measure in the Bay Area and Northern California generally.