Strong Ground-Motion Prediction in Seismic Hazard Analysis: PEGASOS and Beyond

The SSHAC Level 4 approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which could be considered to define the state-of-the-art in PSHA using multiple expert opinions, has been fully applied only twice, firstly in the multi-year Yucca Mountain study and subsequently (2002-2004) in the PEGASOS project. The authors of this paper participated as ground-motion experts in this latter project, the objective of which was comprehensive seismic hazard analysis for four nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland, considering annual exceedance frequencies down to 1/10000000. Following SSHAC procedure, particular emphasis was put on capturing both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. As a consequence, ground motion prediction was performed by combining several empirical ground motion models within a logic tree framework with the weights on each logic tree branch expressing the personal degree-of-belief of each ground-motion expert. In the present paper, we critically review the current state of ground motion prediction methodology in PSHA in particular for regions of low seismicity. One of the toughest lessons from PEGASOS was that in systematically and rigorously applying the laws of uncertainty propagation to all of the required conversions and adjustments of ground motion models, a huge price has to be paid in an ever-growing aleatory variability. Once this path has been followed, these large sigma values will drive the hazard, particularly for low annual frequencies of exceedance. Therefore, from a post-PEGASOS perspective, the key issues in the context of ground-motion prediction for PSHA for the near future are to better understand the aleatory variability of ground motion and to develop suites of ground-motion prediction equations that employ the same parameter definitions. The latter is a global rather than a regional challenge which might be a desirable long-term goal for projects similar to the PEER NGA (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Next Generation of Attenuation of Ground Motions) project.