Determining Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence in the Canadian Arctic Using a Dense GPS Velocity Field for North America

With observed climate warming in the western Canadian Arctic and potential increases in regional sea level, we anticipate expansion of the coastal region subject to rising relative sea level and increased flooding risk. This is a concern for coastal communities such as Tuktoyaktuk and Sachs Harbour and for the design and safety of hydrocarbon production facilities on the Mackenzie Delta. To provide a framework in which to monitor these changes, a consistent velocity field has been determined from GPS observations throughout North America, including the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Mackenzie Delta region. An expanded network of continuous GPS sites and multi-epoch (episodic) sites has enabled an increased density that enhances the application to geophysical studies including the discrimination of crustal motion, other components of coastal subsidence, and sea-level rise. To obtain a dense velocity field consistent at all scales, we have combined weekly solutions of continuous GPS sites from different agencies in Canada and the USA, together with the global reference frame under the North American Reference Frame initiative. Although there is already a high density of continuous GPS sites in the conterminous United States, there are many fewer such sites in Canada. To make up for this lack of density, we have incorporated high-accuracy episodic GPS observations on stable monuments distributed throughout Canada. By combining up to ten years of repeated, episodic GPS observations at such sites, together with weekly solutions from the continuous sites, we have obtained a highly consistent velocity field with a significantly increased spatial sampling of crustal deformation throughout Canada. This exhibits a spatially coherent pattern of uplift and subsidence in Canada that is consistent with the expected rates of glacial isostatic adjustment. To determine the contribution of vertical motion to sea-level rise under climate warming in the Canadian Arctic, we have established co-located tide gauges and continuous GPS at a number of sites across the Canadian Arctic, including Tuktoyaktuk on the eastern side of the Mackenzie Delta. We are also investigating additional sources of subsidence in the delta, including sediment loading, compaction of unfrozen and discontinuously ice-bonded sediments, and anticipated subsidence resulting from future natural gas production. Further densification of the velocity field, including the addition of new sites in the delta, and regular reoccupation of episodic sites will assist in determining local rates of motion. Strategies for discriminating the various components of subsidence in this large delta include episodic GPS on monuments and borehole casing penetrating to various depths and supporting InSAR analysis and geological data. Coastal flooding hazards will be evaluated using digital elevation models derived from real-time kinematic GPS, airborne LiDAR surveys, and synthetic aperture radar flood mapping.