Arctic Weather Change: Linking Indigenous (Inuit) Observations With the Surface Temperature Record

Inuit observations in the Artic describe increasing unpredictability in the weather. In an effort to link their reports with scientific data, we analyzed time series of surface temperatures from two stations; Baker Lake and Clyde River, located in Nunavut, Canada. 52 year records (1953-2004) of hourly WMO weather station temperature data were utilized for a statistical assessment at the two locations. Large positive trends in mean temperature were observed at both sites. Hourly and daily temperature differences were then calculated noting that a positive tendency in results may be indicative of recent variability. This was not seen. Further examination focused on a possible increase or decrease in frontal activity; these results displayed little change in the magnitude of frontal activity in both locations. Very small changes were observed in the variance, with a tendency toward higher values. It is difficult to understand how these small changes in variance could be easily observable by the Inuit, although the ramification of a small change in variance may be more easily observed. Finally, day-to-day autocorrelation was calculated as a way to quantify the persistence of weather. A strong change was noted in June at Baker Lake. At the beginning of the time series (1953 - 1990) autocorrelation values were typically in the 0.8 +- 0.1 range, in the 1990's they were often around 0.4. These results show a marked change in the persistence of weather for this month. We will need to explore further if such an outcome can be used to estimate the predictability of weather and estimate changes in weather patterns. These initial results, however, are promising and point to a distinct change in the nature and predictability of weather.