On the Creation of Predictive Space Weather Models for the Exploration Initiative

Human exploration of Moon and Mars exposes astronauts and robotic missions to radiation hazards in space. Radiation hazards arise primarily from three sources: radiation belt particles in the inner magnetosphere of the Earth, cosmic rays, and solar energetic particles that are accelerated near the solar surface or in the inner heliosphere. In the event of space travel, long term forcasts of these radiation sources are essential for the health and safety of humans and robotic missions underway or residing on the surface of Moon and Mars. To-date, however, most ingredients of a suitable forecast system are missing, due to a combined lack of physical insight, modeling capabilities, and observations. As a result, the required forecasts are either impossible to-date, or fraught with substantial inaccuracies. In this presentation, we will outline the steps necessary to develop the predictive capability needed to execute safe space travel. We will describe all aspects of a combined campaign that is based on basic research, model development and validation, and on the creation of essential data sources for assimilation and model input.