Comparison of the UAF Ionosphere Model with Incoherent-Scatter Radar Data

The UAF Eulerian Parallel Polar Ionosphere Model (UAF EPPIM) is a first-principles three-dimensional time-dependent representation of the northern polar ionosphere (>50 degrees north latitude). The model routinely generates short-term (~2 hours) ionospheric forecasts in real-time. It may also be run in post-processing/batch mode for specific time periods, including long-term (multi-year) simulations. The model code has been extensively validated (~100k comparisons/model year) against ionosonde foF2 data during quiet and moderate solar activity in 2002-2004 with reasonable fidelity (typical relative RMS 10-20% for summer daytime, 30-50% winter nighttime). However, ionosonde data is frequently not available during geomagnetic disturbances. The objective of the work reported here is to compare model outputs with available incoherent-scatter radar data during the storm period of October-November 2003. Model accuracy is examined for this period and compared to model performance during geomagnetically quiet and moderate circumstances. Possible improvements are suggested which are likely to boost model fidelity during storm conditions.