Forwards and Backwards Modelling of Ashfall Hazards in New Zealand by Monte Carlo Methods

We have developed a technique for quantifying the probability of particular thicknesses of airfall ash from a volcanic eruption at any given site, using Monte Carlo methods, for hazards planning and insurance purposes. We use an established program (ASHFALL) to model individual eruptions, where the likely thickness of ash deposited at selected sites depends on the location of the volcano, eruptive volume, column height and ash size, and the wind conditions. A Monte Carlo formulation then allows us to simulate the variations in eruptive volume and in wind conditions by analysing repeat eruptions, each time allowing the parameters to vary randomly according to known or assumed distributions. Actual wind velocity profiles are used, with randomness included by selection of a starting date. We show how this method can handle the effects of multiple volcanic sources by aggregation, each source with its own characteristics. This follows a similar procedure which we have used for earthquake hazard assessment. The result is estimates of the frequency with which any given depth of ash is likely to be deposited at the selected site, accounting for all volcanoes that might affect it. These numbers are expressed as annual probabilities or as mean return periods. We can also use this method for obtaining an estimate of how often and how large the eruptions from a particular volcano have been. Results from ash cores in Auckland can give useful bounds for the likely total volumes erupted from the volcano Mt Egmont/Mt Taranaki, 280 km away, during the last 140,000 years, information difficult to obtain from local tephra stratigraphy.