Variability of Climate In Serbia In The Second Half of The 20thc Entury

According to data of IPCC, the global surface temperature increased to 0.6 °C in the 20th century. It is claimed that the most studies registered significant changes of climate and that those changes also show that there is a small probability that the registered trend of worming is caused in general by natural factors . Weber quotes that the increase of global temperature in the last 140 years is 0.3 °C, and that there is a trend of cold in the last 60 years in the middle latitudes including Europe, too. Starting from already mentioned perplexities we have tried to perceive the problem of climate variability in Serbia in the second half of the 20th century, when it came to very important increasing of concentration of CO2. With that aim we observed the decade values of average annual temperatures in the system of 20 climatic stations. Until 1990 a decrease of temperature was registered in 13 stations while in other stations an increase that was less than 0.1 °C was registered from 1951. Explorers from Bulgaria and Hungary came to similar results, too. However, if we take in account the last decade the picture is changed and the number of stations with positive changes is enlarged on 15. Stations that have small changes and those with decrease of temperature were localized in the south and south - eastern part of the country and they are mainly coincided with before separated climatic regions. That regional differentiation referred us to search for circulation reasons of temperature change. Using Dzerdzevski division on three main types of circulation in the south hemisphere, we found that the incr ease of temperatures in the last decade is above all caused by change of dominant type of circulation from the meridian south to zonal. An analysis of seasonal changes showed that in the last five decades it came to decrease of winter temperatures in almost half of the stations. On the basis of analogy with warm periods of Holocene that Budiko and Zubakov give it is expected that if an antropogenic effect of greenhouse is present then winter temperatures will be increased which is not a part of mentioned concept. In one sentence, the contemporary climate variability in Serbia could be explained by natural causes, not only according to values of temperature changes but to its structure, too.