Temperature Models for the Mexican Subduction Zone

It is well known that the temperature is one of the major factors which controls the seismogenic zone. The Mexican subduction zone is characterized by a very shallow flat subducting interplate in its central part (Acapulco, Oaxaca), and deeper subduction slabs northern (Jalisco) and southern (Chiapas). It has been proposed that the seismogenic zone is controlled, among other factors, by a temperature. Therefore, we have developed four two-dimensional steady state thermal models for Jalisco, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas. The updip limit of the seismogenic zone is taken between 100 §C and 150 §C, while the downdip limit is thought to be at 350 §C because of the transition from stick-slip to stable-sliding. The shape of the subducting plate is inferred from gravity and seismicity. The convergence velocity between oceanic and continental lithospheric plates is taken as the following: 5 cm/yr for Jalisco profile, 5.5 for Guerrero profile, 5.8 for Oaxaca profile, and 7.8 for Chiapas profile. The age of the subducting plates, since they are young, and provides the primary control on the forearc thermal structure, are as the following: 11 My for Jalisco profile, 14.5 My for Guerrero profile, 15 My for Oaxaca profile, and 28 My for Chiapas profile. We also introduced in the models a small quantity of frictional heating (pore pressure ratio 0.98). The value of 0.98 for pore pressure ratio was obtained for the Guerrero profile, in order to fit the intersection between the 350 §C isotherm and the subducting plate at 200 Km from trench. The value of 200 km coupling zone from trench is inferred from GPS data for the steady interseismic period and also for the last slow aseismic slip that occurred in Guerrero in 2002. We have used this value of pore pressure ratio (0.98) for all the other profiles. For the others three profiles we obtained the following coupling extents: Jalisco - 100 km, Oaxaca - 170 km and Chiapas - 125 km (from the trench). Independent constrains of the thermal models come from the surface thermal measurements (offshore - Prol-Ledesma et al (1989) and onshore - Ziagos et al. (1985)). Unfortunately these measurements are very sparse, and present an important dispersion and have large uncertainties. In our models, all profiles show a decrease in heat flow from the trench towards the continent, which is characteristic for subduction zones. We also have included a mantle wedge flow current in order to keep a constant depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. This mantle wedge convection provides an increase in heat flow near the volcanic arc which is consistent with the surface observations. Our models indicate that the seismogenic zone in Mexico comprised between 100 §C and 350 §C is in good agreement with the coseismic rupture width inferred from the megathrust earthquake aftershocks and seismic models of rupture. These thermal models will be used to calculate the thermal stresses induced by the subducting plate.