* National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025; and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10025 Contributed by James E. Hansen, October 16, 2001 The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m2 per century. This growth rate has since declined to 3 W/m2 per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (≈2 W/m2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 ± 0.05°C per decade will occur over the next several decades.