Are the lower planes of double seismic zones caused by serpentine dehydration in subducting oceanic mantle?

In a number of subduction zones, earthquakes at 50 200 km depth define two dipping planes, separated by 20 40 km, that appear to merge downdip. Upper plane earthquakes are inferred to occur within the subducting oceanic crust, whereas lower plane earthquakes occur in the subducting oceanic mantle. Beneath northeast Japan, the results of a new finite-element heat-transfer model suggest that the lower seismic plane cuts across isotherms at a shallow angle. Lower plane earthquakes occur at ∼550 800 °C at 100 km depth and at ∼350 600 °C at 160 km depth. These conditions coincide with the dehydration reaction antigorite (serpentine) → forsterite + enstatite + H₂O, which suggests that lower plane earthquakes may be triggered by dehydration embrittlement, which in turn suggests that the subducting oceanic mantle is partially hydrated. Serpentinization may occur in the trench outer rise region, where faulting may promote infiltration of seawater several tens of kilometers into the oceanic lithosphere. If this hypothesis is correct, current subduction-zone H₂O budgets may significantly underestimate the amount of bound H₂O entering the “subduction factory.”