Cellular Automata Models. A Useful Modelling Tool To Define Environmental Policy for Forest Fires

An increasing variety of problems are turning to computer simulation to recreate the set of interrelations that characterise them, expecting to achieve a more complete understanding. In this sense, cellular automata models (CAM) provide a consistent and straightforward approach to the study of natural phenomena. CAM consist of a grid of cells, everyone of which has one of a number of finite states. Each cell's state is updated in discrete time steps according to a set of rules. These rules might depend on the state of the cell in its previous time step or the state of its nearest neighbours. CAM have been used to simulate earthquakes, landslides, biodiversity losses, forest fires, etc. In this study a forest-fire simulation CAM has been programmed in order to model fire frequencies and propagation rules. The model leads the system to a statistical steady-state behaviour, where the frequency-area distribution of the small and medium fires satisfies a power-law (fractal) distribution. We analyse various real and model forest-fire spatial and temporal patterns and compares them with each other, finding significant similarities, and then outline some management and policy guidelines.