Nonlinear Network Dynamics on Earthquake Fault Systems

Understanding the physics of earthquakes is essential if large events are ever to be forecast. Real faults occur in topologically complex networks that exhibit cooperative, emergent space-time behavior that includes precursory quiescence or activation, and clustering of events. The purpose of this work is to investigate the sensitivity of emergent behavior of fault networks to changes in the physics on the scale of single faults or smaller. In order to investigate the effect of changes at small scales on the behavior of the network, we need to construct models of earthquake fault systems that contain the essential physics. A network topology is therefore defined in an elastic medium, the stress Green's functions (i.e. the stress transfer coefficients) are computed, frictional properties are defined and the system is driven via the slip deficit as defined below. The long-range elastic interactions produce mean-field dynamics in the simulations. We focus in this work on the major strike-slip faults in Southern California that produce the most frequent and largest magnitude events. To determine the topology and properties of the network, we used the tabulation of fault properties published in the literature. We have found that the statistical distribution of large earthquakes on a model of a topologically complex, strongly correlated real fault network is highly sensitive to the precise nature of the stress dissipation properties of the friction laws associated with individual faults. These emergent, self-organizing space-time modes of behavior are properties of the network as a whole, rather than of the individual fault segments of which the network is comprised (ref: PBR et al., Physical Review Letters, in press, 2001).