Emission Corridors Preserving the Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) transports large amounts of heat northward, acting as a heating system for the northern North Atlantic and north-western Europe. A large number of model simulations have shown the THC to be self-sustaining within certain limits, with well-defined thresholds where the circulation shuts down. Manabe and Stouffer (1993), for example, have simulated a complete shutdown of the THC for a quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂. Because of the possibly severe consequences that a collapse of the THC would have upon the North Atlantic and north-western Europe, such an event may be considered as "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" that Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls to avoid. Here we present bundles of emission paths (the so called "emission corridors") that preserve the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. These corridors are calculated on the methodological and conceptual basis of the Tolerable Windows Approach. For this purpose a multi-gas reduced-form climate model has been supplemented by a dynamic Stommel-type boxmodel of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Both models allow for the relevant uncertainties (i.e., emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity, Atlantic hydrological sensitivity) to be taken into account. The sensitivity of emissions corridors with respect to the uncertain parameters is explored and the implications for a climate policy committed to the preservation of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in the sense of Article 2 are discussed.