The Distance Lightning Travels From a Thunderstorm Based on Altitude and Atmospheric Temperature

Aircraft have avoidance criteria for thunderstorms that are based on flight altitude, atmospheric temperature, and the type of cloud in question. The problem arises in determining the likelihood that a lightning flash will travel a certain distance from a thunderstorm and strike an aircraft flying at any given altitude. Once this determination is made, it will then be possible to give pilots a probability of being stuck by lightning at their present altitude and distance from a storm. The calculations were done using data from 1997 to present from the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system in place at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Three-dimensional locations for the individual discharges associated with a lightning flash are available from LDAR. The origin of each flash and the horizontal extent of the lightning were determined and stratified by origin location, altitude of the outer limit of the flash, and the temperatures at either end of the flash. While the results are only valid for the Melbourne, Florida region, this technique can be applied to other areas with a network such as LDAR in place. These preliminary results show promise for improving the ability to avoid lightning strikes to aircraft in flight.