Ground Motion Synthetics for Spontaneous Versus Prescribed Rupture on a 45o Thrust Fault

We have compared prescribed (kinematic) and spontaneous dynamic rupture propagation on a 45^o dipping thrust fault buried up to 5 km in a half-space model, as well as ground motions on the free surface for frequencies less than 1 Hz. The computations are carried out using a 3D finite-difference method with rate-and-state friction on a planar, 20 km by 20 km fault. We use a slip-weakening distance of 15 cm and a slip-velocity weakening distance of 9.2 cm/s, similar to those for the dynamic study for the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake by Nielsen and Olsen (2000) which generated satisfactory fits to selected strong motion data in the San Fernando Valley. The prescribed rupture propagation was designed to mimic that of the dynamic simulation at depth in order to isolate the dynamic free-surface effects. In this way, the results reflect the dynamic (normal-stress) interaction with the free surface for various depths of burial of the fault. We find that the moment, peak slip and peak sliprate for the rupture breaking the surface are increased by up to 60%, 80%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the values for the scenario buried 5 km. The inclusion of these effects increases the peak displacements and velocities above the fault by factors up 3.4 and 2.9 including the increase in moment due to normal-stress effects at the free surface, and up to 2.1 and 2.0 when scaled to a Northridge-size event with surface rupture. Similar differences were found by Aagaard et al. (2001). Significant dynamic effects on the ground motions include earlier arrival times caused by super-shear rupture velocities (break-out phases), in agreement with the dynamic finite-element simulations by Oglesby et al. (1998, 2000). The presence of shallow low-velocity layers tend to increase the rupture time and the sliprate. In particular, they promote earlier transitions to super-shear velocities and decrease the rupture velocity within the layers. Our results suggest that dynamic interaction with the free surface can significantly affect the ground motion for faults buried less than 1-3 km. We therefore recommend that strong ground motion for these scenarios be computed including such dynamic rupture effects.