Parametrichistoric Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part I: Estimation of Maximum Regional Magnitude m_{max}
Abstract
A new methodology for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is described. The approach combines the best features of the "deductive" (Cornell, 1968) and "historical" (Veneziano et al., 1984) procedures. It can be called a "parametrichistoric" procedure.The maximum regional magnitude m_{max} is of paramount importance in this approach and Part I of our work presents some of the statistical techniques which can be used for its evaluation. The work is an analysis of parametric procedures for the evaluation of m_{max}, when the form of the magnitude distribution is specified. For each of the formulae given there are notes on its origin, assumptions made of its derivation, and some comparisons. The statistical concepts of bias and variance are considered for each formula, and appropriate expressions for these are also given. Also, following Knopoff and Kagan (1977), we shall demonstrate why there must be a finite upper bound to the largest seismic event if the GutenbergRichter frequencymagnitude relation is accepted.
 Publication:

Pure and Applied Geophysics
 Pub Date:
 1998
 DOI:
 10.1007/s000240050161
 Bibcode:
 1998PApGe.152..413K
 Keywords:

 Key words: Seismic hazard;
 maximum regional earthquake magnitude m<SUB>max</SUB> .