Paleoseismicity of the 1981 Corinth earthquake fault: Seismic contribution to extensional strain in central Greece and implications for seismic hazard

We present paleoseismological trenching results for the active Skinos Fault, which ruptured the surface on the Alkyonides Gulf basin margin in the 1981 Gulf of Corinth earthquake sequence. Three trenches expose evidence of up to six previous events which are comparable to the 1981 deformation in terms of size and geometry. Vertical displacement produced by the 1981 earthquake ranged from 0.45 to 1.3 m at the Bambakies Fan trench sites, decreasing towards the eastern fault tip east of the trenches. Trench 1 reveals two previous events with vertical displacements between 0.5 and 1.2 m since 390 A.D. Trench 2 reveals five or six previous events, but these are not dated. Trench 3 reveals four previous events since 670 A.D. Vertical displacements associated with interpreted paleoearthquakes at the trench sites are ≤1.2 m. The recurrence interval on the Skinos Fault is estimated to average 330 years. However, significant variation in recurrence interval is allowed by the available radiometric dates. Average vertical displacement rates derived from the trenches are in the range 0.7-2.5 mm/yr. A similar long-term average vertical displacement rate of 1.2-2.3 mm/yr is estimated for the lifespan of the basin-bounding fault. This equates to a horizontal seismic strain contribution of ≤2.5 mm/yr from the Skinos Fault. This local seismic strain rate overlaps, within error, with geodetically determined velocities across the Alkyonides Gulf assumed to represent uniform deep-crustal strain. Thus seismic deformation on the basin-bounding fault system may take up the major part of extension across the basin, and aseismic strain is not necessitated by the data. If correct, this would imply that geodetically determined strain rates may be used as a proxy for potential seismic moment release in seismic hazard analyses for this region.