Large-body impacts cannot be predicted, although the probability (size-frequency) of large impacts on the Earth has been worked out, yielding frequencies of the order of one impact of a 1-km body every 500000 years. Another type of prediction, however, is that forthcoming from the consequences of a large-body impact. Prediction as validation of theory. What can be predicted are the consequences of a large impact, ranging from local and regional ejecta blankets to global climate changes leading to mass extinctions. It is the fulfillment of such predictions that has rendered strength to the impact-extinction theory for the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary, in contrast to predictions attached to widespread volcanism, such as at the Deccan traps in India, or sea-level changes.
International Journal of Earth Sciences
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