Effects of satellite bunching on the probability of collision in geosynchronous orbit
Abstract
The rapid increase in the satellite population in geostationary Earth orbit is a matter of international concern, in part because of increased collision hazard. Collocated satellite pairs in GEO experience natural drift requiring periodic station-keeping impulses, leading to similar trajectories and close encounters. To assess this risk, a procedure was devised that ranks satellite pairs in GEO according to the highest number of encounters over an extended time interval. Probability of collision was determined by a geometric and a statistical approach. It was found that many pairs of satellites in GEO remain in close proximity and experience many close approaches over time. The top 10 pairs in terms of closest encounters were identified, and mean-time-to-collision based on encounter statistics was determined. Results of the study suggest that the bunching of active or inactive satellites at certain longitudes is a significant effect to be considered in the assessment of the collision hazard in the geosynchronous ring.
- Publication:
-
Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets
- Pub Date:
- September 1994
- DOI:
- 10.2514/3.26529
- Bibcode:
- 1994JSpRo..31..895C
- Keywords:
-
- Active Satellites;
- Bunching;
- Collisions;
- Earth Orbits;
- Geosynchronous Orbits;
- Populations;
- Probability Theory;
- Spacecraft Trajectories;
- Statistical Analysis;
- Aircraft Hazards;
- Collision Avoidance;
- Impulses;
- Risk;
- Space Probes;
- Stationkeeping;
- Spacecraft Design, Testing and Performance