Size, trend, distribution and conservation of the brown bear Ursus arctos population in Sweden

The density of adult (≥3 years) female brown bears Ursus arctos was estimated in two areas of Sweden from ratios of radio-marked and unmarked females consorting with radio-marked adult males during the breeding season. The resulting densities were 1·2 ± 0·81 (95% confidence interval) adult females/1000 km ² in a northern study area and 1·06 ± 3·44 adult females/1000 km ² in a southern area. These estimates were extrapolated to obtain a population estimate for Sweden using relative densities throughout the range of the species in Sweden, based on hunter-kill statistics, and observed rates of reproduction and juvenile and subadult survival. The total population in spring 1991 was estimated to be about 620 bears, with almost all females confined to four geographically separated areas, termed female core areas. A supplementary estimate, based on estimated kill rates of adult females in the study areas, was about 660 bears. Estimates based on hunter kill rates of marked bears gave minimum and maximum estimates of about 300 and 900 bears, respectively. Although these are not confidence intervals of the total population estimate, we believe that the true population size is included within these limits. Densities within the female core areas varied from 50 to 100% of those in similar habitats in European Russia. The bear population in Sweden appeared to have increased at a stable rate of about 1·5% annually during the past 50 years. Mean annual rate of legal harvest during 1943-1991 was estimated to be 5·5% (±2·1% SD), suggesting a maximum sustainable rate of 7·0% for this population. The harvest increased at a rate of 9·6% annually during 1981-1991, and apparently was at the maximum sustainable level during 1987-1991.