Deriving global climate sensitivity from palaeoclimate reconstructions
Abstract
To assess the future impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas on global climate, a reliable estimate of the sensitivity of the earth climate to changes in radiative forcing is needed. The sensitivity to this forcing of two palaeoclimates, one colder and one warmer than present, is retrieved here by independently reconstructing both the equilibrium surface temperature change and the radiative forcing. It is found that the equilibrium surface temperature increase for CO2 doubling is 2.3 +/- 0.9 C. This range is comparable with estimates from GCMs and inferences from recent temperature observations and ocean models. Future applications of this method to additional climates in the geological record might constrain climate sensitivity enough to narrow the model uncertainties of global warming predictions.
- Publication:
-
Nature
- Pub Date:
- December 1992
- DOI:
- 10.1038/360573a0
- Bibcode:
- 1992Natur.360..573H
- Keywords:
-
- Climate Change;
- Greenhouse Effect;
- Paleoclimatology;
- Carbon Dioxide Concentration;
- Man Environment Interactions;
- Geophysics