Trend Analysis of Total Ozone Data.
The total column ozone data for many Dobson stations are examined for the existence of long-term changes, principally in the period 1965-1986. Analysis of the measurements taken at Arosa, Switzerland from August 1931 to July 1988 reveals a statistically significant wintertime loss in recent years of about 6% compared to historic values. Examination of data from several other ground stations gave similar results, and in addition incongruous features were found in many of the published records. Bojkov (1987/8) produced a set of Provisionally Revised data by adjusting the data using information about the Dobson instrument calibrations made available by the individual stations. Similar winter -time losses are found in an analysis of this Provisionally Revised set of data as are found in the published data. Multiple regression analyses were performed using a model which seeks trends on a monthly basis after allowance for the effects of the solar cycle and the quasi-biennial oscillation. Between 1969 and 1986 the observed decreases in total column ozone in three latitude bands from 30^circ N to 64^circN ranged from -2.3% at the lower latitudes to -6.2% at the higher latitudes during the winter (December through March) and from -0.2% to -1.9% in the summer (May through August). Sensitivity studies are presented which show the robustness of these results to such factors as the length of time considered, the solar cycle, the injection of nitrogen oxides by the nuclear bomb tests which were carried out in the atmosphere in the early 1960's, and the assumed nature of the loss. The seasonal and the latitudinal variations of these losses are qualitatively similar to the predictions of the current 2-D photochemical models of the atmosphere. However the observed losses are greater than the predicted losses by as much as a factor of four at 60^circ N in winter. Finally there is some evidence for longitudinal variations in both the observed trends and in the observed response of total ozone to the atmospheric bomb tests of the early 1960's.
- Pub Date:
- Physics: Atmospheric Science