Chaotic dynamics of Comet Halley

A simple model of the dynamics of Halley's comet is developed, and its motion is shown to be chaotic due to the perturbations by Jupiter. Estimates for the error growth in the extrapolation of the comet's trajectory are obtained which particularly explain a sharp divergence of different extrapolations of Comet Halley's orbit previously obtained. Various mechanisms limiting the full sojourn time of the comet in the solar system are considered. These include the orbit diffusion under the perturbations by Jupiter and by Saturn, the orbit drift due to weak nongravitational forces as well as the prompt ejection of the comet from the solar system upon its very close encounter with Jupiter. The estimated sojourn time of Comet Halley in the solar system is compared to the period of hypothetical comet showers from the Oort cloud which is about 30 Myr.