Statistical ShortTerm Earthquake Prediction
Abstract
A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About onethird of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7year database that has a lower magnitude cutoff of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.
 Publication:

Science
 Pub Date:
 June 1987
 DOI:
 10.1126/science.236.4808.1563
 Bibcode:
 1987Sci...236.1563K