A lagged-average 60-day forecast experiment during the 1982-83 El Nino period
Abstract
The role of surface thermal forcing in increasing the predictability of low-frequency large-scale atmospheric anomalies was assessed using model runs of winter 1982 to 1983, with the strong El-Nino event. The experiment is composed of two lagged-average forecasting sets of integrations, each consisting of 9 forecasts initiated from adjacent analysis separated by 6-hr intervals. It is concluded that it is plausible that, during the central part of the integration period, the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere switched from a regime dominated by internal dynamics variability to a regime driven mainly by anomalous boundary forcing. The model integrations seem to be unable to reproduce the former while they show considerable skill in representing the latter.
- Publication:
-
Comparison of Simulations by Numerical Models of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Circulation to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
- Pub Date:
- July 1986
- Bibcode:
- 1986csnm.work..117M
- Keywords:
-
- Air Water Interactions;
- Atmospheric Circulation;
- Atmospheric Models;
- El Nino;
- Prediction Analysis Techniques;
- Sea Surface Temperature;
- Error Analysis;
- Forced Convection;
- Northern Hemisphere;
- Geophysics