Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-85

Using the comprehensively quality-controlled Meteorological Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature data set (MOHSST)^1,2 we show for the first time that persistently wet and dry periods in the Sahel region of Africa are strongly related to contrasting patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies on a near-global scale. The anomalies include relative changes in SST between the hemispheres, on timescales of years to tens of years, which are most pronounced in the Atlantic. Experiments with an 11-level global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) support the idea that the worldwide SST anomalies modulate summer Sahel rainfall through changes in tropical atmospheric circulation^3-6. El Niño events may also play a part. We do not discount the effects of soil moisture and albedo changes in the Sahel^7,8, although Courel et al.⁹ have questioned the importance of albedo changes, but we do suggest that worldwide SST anomalies may have a more fundamental influence on Sahel rainfall.