Accuracy of the prediction of the orbital motion of an artificial earth satellite

The perturbing factors affecting the motion of a satellite are analyzed the consideration of which is necessary for the high-precision prediction of orbital motion (1 m to 1 cm). The number of these factors and the complexity of the corresponding models increase sharply as the accuracy is increased. Stochastic properties of the motion then emerge, which makes it impossible to predict satellite trajectories by standard methods with an accuracy that corresponds to the accuracy of the best observations. It is concluded that a new approach to the modeling of satellite motion is needed.