Lifetime prediction for satellites in low-inclination transfer orbits

An approximate analytical method was developed for predicting the lifetimes of objects, e.g. rockets used for satellite launches in transfer orbits with perigee height between 120 and 300 km, apogee height near 36,000 km, and inclination between 20 and 30 deg. There are four sources of error: (1) estimating the mass/area ratio of the satellite; (2) predicting the average solar activity during the lifetime; (3) errors in perigee height of the initial orbit used; and (4) errors in the estimated mean perigee height, caused by the approximations. Sources (1) and (2) give errors of 10% to 20% in lifetime. Sources (3) and (4) give errors of about 10 km in perigee height, equivalent to errors by a factor of two in lifetime for low perigee (130 km height) or 20% error for high perigee (250 km).