Trend analysis. Space communications system technology. Phase 1: Definition of user needs

In order to specify and rank the technical goals for ESA space communication missions in the 1985-1995 period, the future development of telecommunication needs of countries was identified and the suitability of implementation by space systems was assessed. For countries other than in Western Europe the demand for telecommunication services for the 1985-1995 period was estimated for each country by consideration both of the status and plans of the existing networks and of the expected economic parameters for the period. A model was constructed to compare the costs of the different terrestrial and space communication systems that would meet the projected needs. For no country was a single service space communication system cost competitive with terrestrial systems. To have a chance of being cost competitive with terrestrial systems some additional services need to be included in the space segment, or the space segment should serve more than one country in a region. Also, for Western Europe, it was concluded that a space implementation is not cost effective for communication services on a stand alone basis.