Using Dynamo Theory to predict the sunspot number during Solar Cycle 21
Abstract
On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 ± 20. We think of this estimate as a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.
- Publication:
-
Geophysical Research Letters
- Pub Date:
- May 1978
- DOI:
- 10.1029/GL005i005p00411
- Bibcode:
- 1978GeoRL...5..411S
- Keywords:
-
- Dynamo Theory;
- Magnetic Flux;
- Solar Activity;
- Solar Magnetic Field;
- Sunspot Cycle;
- Sunspots;
- Solar Corona;
- Solar Eclipses;
- Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Dynamo theories;
- Particles and Fields-Interplanetary Space: Solar wind magnetic fields;
- Solar Physics;
- Astrophysics;
- and Astronomy: Magnetic fields;
- and Astronomy: Sunspots