Prediction of fluctuations in the landings of brown shrimp ( Crangon crangon) in the Lancashire and Western Sea Fisheries District
Abstract
A study of 30 years of meteorological data and records of shrimp landings in the Lancashire and Western Sea Fisheries District has been carried out using computer techniques. This has shown that it is possible to estimate a year's shrimp landings on the basis of the prevous year's landings and weather conditions. The best correlation equation produced in this study was: S2 = 16085 - (1618 × t) + (3.849 × r) + (0.462 × S1) + (0.616 × f) where: S1 = shrimp catch in year 1 (cwt) S2 = shrimp catch in year 2 (cwt) t = average air temperature in year 1 (°C) r = total rainfall in year 1 (mm) f = flatfish landings in year 1 (cwt). This equation accounts for a total of 46% of the variance in the records of shrimp landings ( S2). When used as a retrospective prediction for the 1947-1974 data, the estimate of shrimp landings gave an average deviation from observed landings of ±1516 cwt (±16% of the average landings).
- Publication:
-
Estuarine and Coastal Marine Science
- Pub Date:
- 1976
- DOI:
- 10.1016/0302-3524(76)90031-1
- Bibcode:
- 1976ECMS....4..567D