Propulsion effluents in the stratosphere. CIAP monograph 2

The Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) of the U.S. Department of Transportation is charged with the 'assessment' of the impact of future aircraft fleets and other vehicles operating in, or transiting through, the stratosphere. The vehicular portion of the overall problem is treated in depth and emphasizes aircraft. The impact of future aircraft fleets depends on the introduction rate (e.g., kg/year) of pollutants, altitude, and to some extent, season and location at which such pollutants are injected. Thus, trends and projections for aircraft operations, to determine and thereby gain time to forestall climatic problems that might otherwise result are examined. Also technology improvements for minimizing adverse effects are examined. 'Upper-bound' and 'expected' projections are offered through the year 2000. The year 2025 is examined as an 'anchor point', i.e., as a time frame beyond that of interest but with which intermediate projections must be in line. In addition, emissions from the Space Shuttle vehicle, other rockets, and hypersonic transport (research vehicles only) are noted.