Forecast of active region development by the method of potential functions.
Abstract
Methods are presented for forecasting the development of a flocculus using observations made on the day of its appearance and for forecasting the emergence of a previously formed flocculus from behind the solar disk. In the first case, four initial parameters are used to determine whether a flocculus will disappear behind the solar disk, whether it will reemerge, and whether flare activity can be expected in it. It is shown that such a forecast can be made with a probability of at least 0.8 for 75% of all flocculi. In the second case, a computer and the method of potential functions are utilized, and the probability that a flocculus will emerge from behind the solar disk in a subsequent rotation is determined from 15 parameters characterizing the flocculus during its passage across the disk. The predicted and calculated probabilities are found to differ by no more than 0.3 for 77% of all flocculi in 1968 and for 84% in 1969.
 Publication:

Izvestiya Ordena Trudovogo Krasnogo Znameni Krymskoj Astrofizicheskoj Observatorii
 Pub Date:
 1974
 Bibcode:
 1974IzKry..52..131S
 Keywords:

 Faculae;
 Prediction Analysis Techniques;
 Solar Flares;
 Computer Techniques;
 Functions (Mathematics);
 Probability Theory;
 Solar Limb;
 Solar Rotation;
 Solar Physics