Predicting a Solar Cycle Before its Onset Using a Flux Transport Dynamo Model
Abstract
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle 24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle 24, on the assumption that the irregularities of the solar cycle arise due to the fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. We point out that fluctuations in the meridional circulation can be another cause of irregularities in the cycle.
- Publication:
-
Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts
- Pub Date:
- August 2018
- DOI:
- 10.1017/S1743921317007967
- arXiv:
- arXiv:1808.08543
- Bibcode:
- 2018IAUS..335..177C
- Keywords:
-
- Sun: activity;
- Sun: magnetic fields;
- MHD.;
- Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
- E-Print:
- To be published in the Proceedings of IAU Symposium 335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts