Future Trends in Computing

According to a Top500.org compilation, large computer systems have been doubling in sustained speed every 1.14 years for the last 17 years. If this rapid growth continues, we will have computers by 2020 that can execute an Exaflop (10¹⁸) per second. Storage is also improving in cost and density at an exponential rate. Several innovations that will accompany this growth are reviewed here, including shrinkage of basic circuit components on Silicon, three-dimensional integration, and Phase Change Memory. Further growth will require new technologies, most notably those surrounding the basic building block of computers, the Field Effect Transistor. Implications of these changes for the types of problems that can be solved are briefly discussed.