Predicting the Z-pinch Dimits shift through gyrokinetic tertiary instability analysis of the entropy mode

The Dimits shift, an upshift in the onset of turbulence from the linear instability threshold, caused by self-generated zonal flows, can greatly enhance the performance of magnetic confinement plasma devices. Except in simple cases, using fluid approximations and model magnetic geometries, this phenomenon has proved difficult to understand and quantitatively predict. To bridge the large gap in complexity between simple models and realistic treatment in toroidal magnetic geometries (e.g. tokamaks or stellarators), the present work uses fully gyrokinetic simulations in a Z-pinch geometry to investigate the Dimits shift through the lens of tertiary instability analysis, which describes the emergence of drift waves from a zonally dominated state. Several features of the tertiary instability, previously observed in fluid models, are confirmed to remain. Most significantly, an efficient reduced-mode tertiary model, which previously proved successful in predicting the Dimits shift in a gyrofluid limit (Hallenbert & Plunk, J. Plasma Phys., vol. 87, issue 05, 2021, 905870508), is found to be accurate here, with only slight modifications to account for kinetic effects.